The country should approach gas-fired power development with caution, write the authors of a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. In October, the Cambodian conglomerate Royal Group broke ground on a 900-megawatt (MW) electricity generation project in ...Read more
The country should approach gas-fired power development with caution, write the authors of a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In October, the Cambodian conglomerate Royal Group broke ground on a 900-megawatt (MW) electricity generation project in the Botum Sakor district, on the country’s south-western coast. If it’s completed and running by 2027, the project would become the country’s largest operational power plant, and its first to run on gas.
Cambodia does not produce its own gas, so the project requires the infrastructure to import the fuel in its cold, liquid form, then reheat it for combustion in the plant. A 2023 report by the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) advocates for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to play a major role in Cambodia’s energy future.
This is a risky proposition. In recent years, other countries in the region that rely on imported LNG have struggled to maintain energy security and affordability. This has been due to global market disruptions and skyrocketing costs. Cambodia’s foray into LNG markets will therefore require careful strategic foresight and planning to reduce energy costs, improve reliability and support economic growth.
Numerous questions remain, however, regarding costs and procurement, the role of LNG-fired electricity in the country’s power mix, and the use of potentially cheaper alternatives. Without clear answers, Cambodia’s economy could find itself exposed to the large costs and volatility of global LNG markets.
How will Cambodia buy LNG and what will it cost?
New buyers such as Cambodia typically acquire LNG from spot markets or through multi-year contracts. The latter establishes volumes and pricing methods across the contract’s term. Both of these acquisition options entail risks for energy security and cost.
Buying from the spot market means Cambodia could import shipments whenever needed rather than committing to set contracts. The country would pay the prevalent global market price at the time of the purchase.
This can be risky during periods of volatile prices. Since 2020, spot prices have fluctuated between US$1 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and US$100/MMBtu – that translates to a swing of between roughly US$4 million and 375 million for a typical, 72,000-tonne LNG shipment.
Contracts alleviate these concerns by setting a pricing formula, typically tied to a percentage of the global oil price. This reduces price volatility, narrowing the cost range of LNG cargo deliveries. However, contracts also stipulate rigid “take-or-pay” terms, meaning Cambodia must either “take” the LNG or “pay” a penalty if the LNG is unneeded. Since LNG’s role in the Cambodian energy system is still uncertain, the country could find itself paying significant penalties.
Importantly, LNG is likely to be expensive under both approaches. Prices under both spot and contract arrangements are currently two to three times as high as coal. Our recent Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) study estimates that, at current prices, operating one 900MW, LNG-fired power plant at baseload levels could cost as much as KHR 2.95 trillion (US$730 million) for the fuel alone. This exceeds Cambodia’s entire 2022 coal import bill.
Cambodia could pay a premium on current prices and struggle to access affordable LNG supplies because it’s a new market entrant with limited bargaining power, uncertain gas requirements and a lower demand profile. In 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused global LNG prices to skyrocket, as wealthy European and Northeast Asian buyers outbid emerging markets for limited supplies.
Pakistan and Bangladesh, for example, were often unable to afford LNG shipments, resulting in fuel shortages and power outages that devastated key economic sectors. In 2024, prices remain well above historical levels, and both countries are still struggling to finance their ballooning LNG import bills. Consequently, in early 2023 Pakistan announced it would stop building LNG-fired power plants.
What impact will LNG have on electricity prices?
Integrating expensive LNG into the Cambodian power mix will have knock-on effects on electricity prices, hindering the government’s efforts to reduce these rates.
At current spot market prices, LNG-fired electricity could cost more than five times that of recent solar projects in the country, or about double the rate of current coal and hydro contracts. For example, IEEFA estimates that LNG-fired electricity could cost US$0.17 per kilowatt-hour at current LNG prices. Meanwhile, Cambodia has attracted solar projects that produce electricity priced at US$0.026 per kilowatt-hour.
LNG fuel prices would likely have to fall below US$4.8/MMBtu to compete with coal and renewables. However, global prices have rarely fallen this low. Most producers require a selling price of US$8/MMBtu or more to service debt and earn a return – and LNG prices are unlikely to fall to competitive levels for the Cambodian power sector.
Other Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, are grappling with the impact of uncompetitive LNG imports upon their electricity rates. It is slowing down LNG-to-power development and putting higher pressure on end-user tariffs.
Cambodian consumers already pay among the highest rates for power in Asia. With LNG prices unlikely to compete with renewables or baseload coal plants and the government prioritising electricity affordability, the role of LNG plants in the power mix remains uncertain.
What is the alternative?
Cambodia needs to properly assess whether a baseload LNG-to-power project is necessary to achieve its energy objectives. Those objectives include maintaining an affordable power supply and generating 70 per cent of the country’s power from renewable sources by 2030, up from 50 per cent in 2023.
The current impetus for LNG development appears to be driven by concerns that wind and solar resources do not provide uninterrupted, dispatchable power. LNG is seen as an integral ingredient to support the grid reliability as electricity demand rises and the power system becomes increasingly reliant on renewables enroute to decarbonisation.
However, with wind projects only starting to materialise and solar making up a mere 5 per cent of Cambodia’s power mix, there is ample opportunity for both wind and solar to expand without jeopardising grid operations. Countries can typically integrate up to 15 per cent of the electricity mix with wind and solar generation with only minor changes to the grid.
Moreover, achieving its 70 per cent renewables target will require Cambodia to limit its utilisation of baseload LNG-fired power plants. This will make it difficult for the country to commit to long-term LNG contracts. This uncertainty will challenge Cambodia’s ability to configure LNG infrastructure and the necessary contracts in a way that ensures both energy security and affordability.
Cambodia must scale its LNG project aspirations so that LNG-fired power does not put the government’s energy goals out of reach. Doing so would allow stakeholders to pursue LNG contracts and infrastructure plans that are best-suited to deliver Cambodia’s energy objectives.
This article was originally published on Dialogue Earth under a Creative Commons licence.
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