This is the second part of two articles that attempt to forecast the political, economic and international environment that Cambodia may face in 2025, in a thematic arrangement.
Security concerns caused by neighbouring countries
The political situation in neighboring countries can pose security concerns for Cambodia.
The case of Thailand presents the case in which extreme nationalism can be instigated based on the unsettled border issues.
Thai domestic political actors who provoked violent conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand in the past have recently intensified their activities.
Many Cambodians have noticed that anytime there is a significant internal conflict in Thai politics, there is a noticeable pattern of political complexity spilling over to Cambodia.
Thai politicians often use border disputes and other conflicting issues with neighbors as leverage in their internal political battles.
Eventually, this pattern frequently uses Cambodia as a scapegoat in their power struggle, which leads to anti-Cambodia propaganda.
The case of Vietnam illustrates a growing anti-Cambodia sentiment that is connected to anti-China sentiment.
Vietnam’s domestic situation is also unstable due to several leadership changes and extensive reforms, and trust in Cambodia is eroding because many Vietnamese new generation leaders are less knowledgeable about Cambodia and strongly want to view relations with Cambodia through the prism of China-Vietnam relations. Many Vietnamese leaders view Cambodia as their “little brother.”
Vietnam has been seen attempting to obstruct any development projects linked to China, from the Funan Techo Canal to the modernization of the Ream naval base and even the construction of the Phnom Penh-Bavet expressway.
Such adversarial politics by both Thai and Vietnamese politicians will continue to pose challenges to Cambodia’s domestic politics and national development.
As in any other country, there are hard-line and moderate politicians and academics.
Some try to destabilize relationships, while others try to find stabilizing factors to ensure the sustainability of traditional friendships.
Some warmongering individuals profit politically from sensitive issues such as unresolved borders and ultra-nationalism.
There are concerns about the extent to which the Thai and Vietnamese leaders have the political will and strong intentions to combat such extremist ideas and activities.
Cambodia is fighting hard against these extremists, some of whom live comfortably abroad, posting and spreading fake maps and news about unresolved borders with impunity.
Unfortunately, these political hardliners who want countries to fight each other over unresolved border issues also receive funding, media support, and political support from foreign entities.
These foreign entities are in fact funding and supporting the spread of fake news and destabilization of domestic politics of countries in the region.
The extremist politicians even have human rights organizations behind them. Human rights organizations have never condemned extremist politicians and their daily production of fake news that fosters hatred, misunderstanding, racism, and violence.
What Cambodia can do is identify and build trust with moderate-leaning foreign politicians in neighboring countries and put guardrails against the possibility of violent conflict between countries that would harm the interests of people in the region.
Conducting more robust exchanges of young politicians and researchers is a must to reduce misunderstanding between neighboring countries.
Will Myanmar become the next Ukraine?
The war and security situation in Myanmar are of serious concern to the entire region. Rather than slowing down, the war is escalating.
Violence continues. There are no talks in place.
As the next chair of ASEAN, Malaysia faces an extremely difficult task of ensuring that no country in the Southeast Asian region becomes the next Ukraine, a site of war machines and weapons testing, a site of ideological struggle, or a site of proxy wars, that will have devastating impact on regional peace, stability and development.
Is China taking a break or catching its breath?
The superpower rivalry between the United States and China will obviously intensify. The fight against Russia becomes like a prelude to the final battle with China.
For the West, the fight against the rise of China is a long marathon, sometimes they lose, sometimes they win, but those who last until the end will win.
Currently, the battles between China and the West are on the fronts of trade, technology, supply chain, diplomatic influence and global governance.
On some issues we can see that China is responding very harshly, but on others we can see that it remains silent.
For example, on trade issues, China often retaliates against unilateral restrictive measures from the West. China is working hard to find alternatives for the dominance of dollar.
But technologically, China is moving forward quietly and it seems that it is winning in the race for electric vehicles. China is also quietly developing its semiconductors to support smart devices despite export restrictions from the West and its allies.
So, in the current situation, it is difficult to say whether China is “taking a break” or “catching its breath” amid growing pressure for competition from the West.
If China finds itself in a winning situation, then it can take a break whenever it wants, it does not need to fight back very hard, it can just focuse on its internal development.
If China is catching its breath, it means that it is struggling hard to fight back, its economy is in decline, its consumption is struggling, employment is reduced, and all economic activities and technological progress are de-accelerated.
At the moment, the current situation is still blurred to reach any conclusion.
The article is firstly published on Khmer Times