How Could Trump’s Return to the White House Boost Cambodia’s Economy?

With Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House, Cambodia is poised to emerge as a significant beneficiary of potential shifts in U.S. trade policy. The ripple effects of such a political shift, particularly in the context of trade tariffs and foreign direct investment (FDI), are drawing considerable attention from economic analysts and business leaders alike.

At the forefront of this conversation is Marc Townsend, Chairman of CBRE Cambodia, who recently spoke at an event in Phnom Penh where key highlights of ‘CBRE Cambodia’s Fearless Forecast 2025’ were discussed. Townsend emphasized the potential for Cambodia to capitalize on manufacturing opportunities as neighboring Vietnam could face trade tariffs similar to those previously imposed on China. This development, coupled with Cambodia’s new laws on FDI and taxation, positions the nation as a potential hub for long-term corporate commitments.

Shifts in US Trade Policy: A Double-Edged Sword?

The U.S. trade policy under Trump’s administration has historically been characterized by a transactional approach, prioritizing American interests often at the expense of multilateral agreements. If this trend continues, it could lead to a realignment of trade partnerships in Southeast Asia, with Vietnam potentially becoming vulnerable to aggressive tariff strategies. The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam, which reached $102 billion in the first ten months of 2024, underscores the growing imbalance that could trigger further tariffs.

Economic analyst Tom Goh noted that Trump’s return could create numerous opportunities for Cambodia, though with an air of caution. He highlighted the need for Cambodia to enhance its infrastructure to attract manufacturing facilities that might relocate from Vietnam. “Vietnam had many advantages in terms of infrastructure and talent base, which led to the flow of billions in investments from the U.S. and other countries,” Goh observed. For Cambodia, the challenge lies in replicating these advantages to attract similar investment inflows.

Strategic Advantages for Cambodia

Cambodia’s proactive stance in reforming its economic landscape plays a critical role in attracting foreign investment. Recent changes in FDI laws and taxation have been aimed at creating a more business-friendly environment. This is particularly pertinent as global companies seek alternatives to Vietnam in light of potential trade barriers.

1. Favorable Taxation Policies: Cambodia’s new taxation laws are designed to provide incentives for foreign investors, making it an attractive destination for businesses looking to mitigate the impact of tariffs in other Southeast Asian countries.
2. Investment in Infrastructure: While Vietnam currently enjoys superior infrastructure, Cambodia’s ongoing projects in transport, logistics, and industrial zones could level the playing field. Enhancing these areas is essential for Cambodia to support large-scale manufacturing and export activities.
3. Political Stability: Cambodia’s political stability compared to some regional counterparts offers a conducive environment for long-term investments, further bolstered by its strategic geographical location.
4. Young Workforce: Cambodia boasts a young and increasingly skilled labor force, which is a vital asset for industries like manufacturing that are labor-intensive.

Potential Risks and Considerations

While the prospects are promising, there are inherent risks associated with such a geopolitical shift. Trump’s ‘America First’ policies might prioritize U.S. interests in a manner that could disrupt existing trade agreements, leading to economic uncertainty in the region. Lena Le of Vietnam National University pointed out that Trump’s policies could undermine multilateral agreements, potentially challenging Vietnam’s strategic partnership with the U.S.

Moreover, Trump’s planned tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico highlight a broader trend of protectionism that could extend to other trade partners. If similar tariffs were imposed on Vietnamese products, it could drive companies to consider Cambodia as an alternative. However, this also means that Cambodia must brace itself for the potential volatility in international trade relations.

Navigating the New Trade Landscape

To fully leverage the opportunities presented by a potential Trump administration, Cambodia must adopt a multifaceted strategy:

1. Diversification of Trade Partners: While benefiting from a potential shift in U.S. trade policy, Cambodia should also seek to diversify its trade partners to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on any single market.
2. Strengthening Bilateral Relations: Strengthening bilateral trade agreements with other nations can provide a buffer against potential U.S. tariffs and ensure a steady inflow of investments.
3. Enhancing Business Environment: Continuous improvement of the business environment, including reducing bureaucratic hurdles and ensuring transparency, will be crucial in attracting and retaining foreign investors.
4. Regional Cooperation: Collaborating with ASEAN countries to present a united front in trade negotiations can enhance Cambodia’s bargaining power and ensure more favorable trade terms.

Conclusion

Cambodia stands at a pivotal juncture where it could significantly benefit from potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under a Trump administration. However, to seize these opportunities, the nation must address infrastructure gaps, enhance its business environment, and diversify its economic partnerships. By doing so, Cambodia can not only attract investment that might divert from Vietnam but also position itself as a resilient and dynamic player in the global trade landscape.

As this scenario unfolds, it remains to be seen how Cambodia will navigate the complexities of international trade under a potentially protectionist U.S. administration. The ability to adapt and innovate will determine whether Cambodia can transform these challenges into long-term economic gains.

What are your thoughts on Cambodia’s potential to benefit from changes in U.S. trade policy under Trump? Share your insights and perspectives in the comments below!