The ongoing Cambodian–Thai border conflict has unexpectedly shifted the consumer landscape in Cambodia. A grassroots boycott of Thai products, energised by the “Khmer Love Khmer” campaign, has led many Cambodians to consciously pull away from goods bearing the Thai label. What has this meant for Cambodia’s broader trade ecosystem and could this shift herald a bigger role not just for Vietnam, but also an amplification of Chinese imports?
Consumer Behavior in Flux: Say Goodbye to Thai Products
With tensions rising and the campaign gaining traction, Thailand-sourced products began slowly vanishing from shelves in July. Imports from Thailand plunged dramatically down 44%, falling from $297.4 million last year to $166 million in July alone, according to the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE). Many consumers, particularly via social media, have embraced the boycott enthusiastically. As Secretary of State Penn Sovicheat emphasized, no one is coerced into excluding Thai goods but consumers clearly feel entitled to choose their suppliers. Asia News Network
This consumer-driven market correction has opened a distinct gap — one that Vietnamese suppliers appear poised to fill.
Vietnam’s Opening: Geography, Trust, and Opportunity
Economist Duch Darin points out that the drop in Thai imports presents a golden opportunity for Cambodia’s other partners, especially Vietnam. Vietnam benefits from natural geographic proximity, cost-efficient logistics, and trade agreements all of which position Vietnamese goods to gain traction fast.
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Nguyen Khac Giang of ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute echoes this, noting that Vietnam’s logistics advantage overland routes—helps Vietnamese goods reach Cambodian consumers faster and cheaper than alternatives. Add to that, Cambodia and Vietnam share strong diplomatic ties and mutual trust foundations ripe for accelerating trade.
Multi-Partner Strategy: Diversification, Resilience, and Stability
Darin suggests a multipronged approach: not only should Cambodia diversify imports across multiple ASEAN countries, but it should also boost local manufacturing and lure foreign investment in domestic production—creating a supply chain that’s both resilient and flexible. Import diversification, he notes, can also enhance Cambodia’s negotiating power and underpin regional stability.
Vietnam, meanwhile, is seizing its moment. A new trade agreement between Cambodia and Vietnam (starting this year into 2026) offers zero-tariff access on 28 categories of Cambodian goods into Vietnam, and establishes a joint trade committee with the aim of reaching $20 billion in bilateral trade volume.
Yet challenges persist: Vietnam Plus notes that poor warehousing, lack of border markets, prevalence of informal trade, smuggling, and quality control issues continue to hinder smoother commerce between Cambodia and Vietnam.
Meanwhile, China Is Already Dominating Imports
Amid all this, Cambodia’s trade with China remains remarkably high—and growing. In 2024, Cambodia–China bilateral trade soared to a record high of $15.19 billion—an increase of 23.8% over 2023’s $12.26 billion. Of that, $13.44 billion were Chinese imports—rising 24.6%—while Cambodian exports to China reached $1.75 billion, growing 18.4%.
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That $15 billion represented nearly 30% of Cambodia’s total trade volume (~$54.74 billion) in 2024.
Breaking it down further: in January–October 2024 alone, imports from China reached $10.95 billion, while exports stood at $1.43 billion. China accounted for about 27.5% of Cambodia’s total trade in that period.
The composition of these Chinese imports spans a wide swath:
- Raw materials for factories critical to Cambodia’s export-oriented manufacturing sector
- Daily consumer goods, food and beverages, vehicles, machinery, construction materials, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.
In short: while Vietnamese goods appear as emergent players, Chinese products already saturate Cambodian markets. So, the question is less about whether Chinese goods are expanding—but how Vietnamese goods might carve out more space, especially amid Thai retreat.
Chinese Deepening: Trade, Infrastructure, and Diplomatic Backing
China’s role extends beyond simple trade. In Q1 of 2025 alone, trade between the two countries reached 33.33 billion yuan (~$4.53 billion)—a 13.1% year-on-year rise, outperforming China–ASEAN average growth by six percentage points. Agricultural trade featured prominently: China imported 980 million yuan in Cambodian farm produce, with cassava chips surging 879.7% and cocoa powder up 133.6%. Global Times
Meanwhile, Chinese exports of vehicles and lithium batteries soared respectively 183.7% to 840 million yuan, and 465.7% to 100 million yuan. Chinese fabrics, vital to Cambodia’s light manufacturing, continued rising for a seventh quarter. Yuan-based cross-border transactions also doubled in 2024 to 20 billion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 4 billion yuan (about 9% of total bilateral trade).
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On the diplomatic side, President Xi Jinping concluded a state visit to Cambodia in April 2025—his first since 2016—signing 37 agreements spanning investment, trade, infrastructure, health, and more. He reaffirmed China’s deep commitment to Cambodia, positioning it as a key partner and strategic friend. AP News
The Chinese Surge Why This Matters in a Thai Boycott Climate
- Infrastructure: China is building Cambodia’s expressways, including the Cambodia–China-funded Phnom Penh–Bavet expressway, which, when completed, will further ease logistics, especially between Vietnam and Cambodia.
- Strategic positioning: Xi’s visit underscored China’s pivot toward Southeast Asia as a stabilizing and reliable economic partner amid global uncertainty. That sentiment resonates in Phnom Penh, especially as Chinese investment pours in through CDC-approved projects (reportedly accounting for nearly 50% of the $6.9 billion in investment in 2024).
In effect, where Vietnamese goods may be gaining traction thanks to consumer preference and logistics, Chinese goods dominate by sheer volume, infrastructure ties, and diplomatic momentum.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in the Smart-Shopper Era
1. Vietnam Gains Momentum, But Must Overcome Friction Points
Yes, Vietnam is well-positioned—with geography, political goodwill, and trade frameworks. Yet poor warehousing, informal channels, and smuggling remain hurdles. If those can be resolved, Vietnamese goods could make significant inroads, especially in sectors like agro-processing, packaged foods, and consumer staples.
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2. China Remains the Bulk Supplier
No boycott is large enough to unseat China from its role as Cambodia’s main supplier. From vehicles and electronics to raw materials and consumer products, Chinese presence is entrenched and still accelerating. However, as consumers grow more conscious, Vietnamese brands could grow premium or “new favorite” appeal.
3. Policy and Infrastructure Will Be the Force Multiplier
Cambodia’s expanding expressway network—built by Chinese firms—will benefit Vietnamese logistics as much as Chinese. Investing in border markets, warehousing, and transparent trade channels will be key. Incentives, SEZs, and streamlined imports could further tilt the balance in Vietnam’s favor.
4. Import Diversification: Both Pragmatic and Strategic
The Thai boycott highlights how consumer sentiment can disrupt trade. A diversified import portfolio—strengthened by multiple partners like Vietnam, U.S., Japan, Malaysia, and Europe—makes Cambodia’s market more resilient and gives consumers real choice. As economist Darin argues, a multi-partner approach can keep prices competitive and supply chains sustainable.
5. Branding and Quality Will Seal the Deal
Vietnamese products have an emerging advantage in storytelling: shared regional identity, perceived quality, and proximity. If Vietnamese exporters can elevate standards—packaging, branding, certifications they could ride the momentum of the Thai pullback.
A Market in Transition
Cambodian consumers are now flexing their economic power—voting with their wallets.
- Thai goods are retreating, both from enforcement and consumer preference.
- Chinese goods already omnipresent continue to surge, fueled by investment, infrastructure, and deep trade relations.
- Vietnam stands at the threshold of greater influence, with all the raw ingredients to capture a growing share but not without addressing logistical and informal trade challenges.
As Cambodia navigates a changing trade landscape, import diversification isn’t just a buzzphrase it’s a necessary evolution. One that can yield better consumer choice, regional ties, and economic resilience in the years to come.